Calculate the Rational Limits of Chance & The Origins of Life
Limits are placed under the (PT) Probability Threshold which is where the threshold is calculated based on the probabilistic resources of the entire universe. This Threshold defines the limit below which the probability of an event (an independently functionally-specified event) should be considered to be zero. For a quick example: An event that has a calculated random-chance probability that is less than this threshold, it is impossible to obtain this event by random chance even given ALL of the material resources of the Universe, AND even given ALL of the time that is available over the entire history of the universe (about 13.82 billion years).
Probability Resources : They include matter and time, specifically: (a) atoms or particles, which can come together in different configurations by random chance; (b) the amount of time available over the entire history of the physical universe, and (c) the smallest amount of time available for a particle-interaction.
(1) atoms or particles, which can come together in different configs by random chance; (2) the amount of time available over the entire span (existence) of the physical universe, and (3) the smallest amount of time available for a particle based interaction.
Chemical Event Probability: Based on the age of the entire physical universe (13.82 billion years = 4.4e17 seconds), the number of particles in the universe (1e80), the speed of the fastest chemical reaction which depends on the frequency of vibration of atoms to cross activation barriers (1e13/sec), we can calculate the total number of possible chemical-events in the entire universe (over its entire age).
Total number of possible chemical events (over the entire history of the physical universe) =
4.4e17 * 1e80 * 1e13 = 4.4e110 possible chemical events.
We can round this number up to 1e111 for all practical purposes. To make it easier for us to remember the number, we can round this up even further to 1e120 total possible events (being graceful here). This means that any given (independently specified) chemical event that has a calculated probability that is lower than 1e-120 should be considered to be impossible.
For a visual, the number looks like this: 0.00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00001
Calculating the PT for Physical based Events
If we use Planck time (5.4e-44 instead of the vibration frequency of atoms), we would end up with
4.4e17*1e80/5.4e-44 = 8.2e140
total possible physical events in the entire universe (over its entire lifetime). This can be rounded up to 1e141 total events. To make it easier for us to remember the number, we can round this up even further to 1e150 total possible events. This means that any given (independently specified) physical event that has a calculated probability that is lower than 1e-150 should be considered to be impossible.
In coming articles I hope to go over the mathematics of miracles, fine-tuned universe, genetic evolution, protein and phyletic evolution and more. These will be found in their respected article categories in the coming weeks. However, I’d like to briefly do an experiment to showcase what we can do with the above rationality.
The simplest independent living cells (bacteria) are incredibly complex. They contain thousands of nucleic acids, enzymes and complex biological molecules. The simplest self-replicators have a basic level of complexity that is unavoidable. Scientists Fred Hoyle and Chandra Wickramasinghe estimate the probability of a very simple enzyme (a necessary molecule) arising at the right place at the right time to be one part in 100 million million million (1 followed by 20 zeroes). They further conclude that an estimate of about 2000 enzymes are needed for a simple bacterial cell. They calculate the probability of the 2000 necessary enzymes arising by chance, to be available for use in a simple cell. The calculated probability turns out to be one part in 1 followed by 40,000 zeroes.
Even if our entire universe were filled with prebiotic soup it would be mathematically impossible for the simplest bacterial cell to originate by random chance. It is relevant to note that mathematicians would normally regard anything with a probability of less than one part in 10 to the power of 50 (1 followed by 50 zeroes) to be a mathematical impossibility. It is in this sense that we refer to an event as being mathematically impossible. Above we’ve shown the Probability Threshold for Impossibility for functionally-specified Chemical Events as 1E-120, and the Probability Threshold for functionally-specified Physical Events as 1E-150. Reminder: 1e-1 = 0.1, and 1e-2 = 0.01, and 1e-10 = 0.00000 00001 etc. So the calculated probability (above) is 1E-40000 which is orders and orders of magnitude smaller than these Probability Thresholds mentioned above. This indicates that the simplest bacterial cell needs 2000 enzymes that CANNOT have originated by random-chance.
To close, I’d like to make it clear that this is not a case against evolution, at least the parts above, as the theory of evolution does not attempt to explain the origins of life. This is rather a case for the intelligent design of a perfect creator. Each bacteria, that we’ve shown cannot appear by chance, has information within it, information comes from intelligence. We can rationally conclude that the origins of life began with a Creator.
[Fred Hoyle and N.C. Wickramasinghe, Evolution from Space (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1981), p. 24. See discussion in Fred Hoyle and N.C. Wickramasinghe, Evolution from Space (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1981), pp. 24-26. Fred Hoyle and N.C. Wickramasinghe, Evolution from Space (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1981), p. 24, also related mention in p. 148.]